- Goldman Sachs surveyed dozens of its clients and found that 87% expected President Donald Trump to win the 2020 election.
- The bank’s strategists polled attendees at a conference this week and received an average of 160 responses to their questions.
- Only 5% of respondents expected a US recession this year, 45% expected a bear market in 2021, and 67% expected the Federal Reserve to hold interest rates steady this year.
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Goldman Sachs surveyed dozens of its clients and found that the vast majority expected President Donald Trump to win a second term in office.
The banking titan’s investment researchers polled attendees of its Global Strategy Conference in London this week, garnering an average of 160 responses to each of their questions. Asked whether Trump — who was recently impeached by the House of Representatives and now faces a Senate trial — would win the 2020 election, 87% of respondents said they expected him to triumph. The bank published its results in a research note Thursday.
While Goldman’s clientele is definitely not representative of the American electorate, the betting site Oddschecker gives similar odds of a Trump victory, at 4/5.
Goldman’s US strategists haven’t predicted who will win the election but have warned that if one party holds the House and the Senate and Trump’s 2017 tax cuts are rolled back, corporate earnings per share could drop by 7% next year — a sharp deviation from the strategists’ baseline estimate of a 5% rise.
The strategists also surveyed conference attendees on when the next US recession would hit. Only 5% said this year, while 35% were bracing for one in 2020, and 38% expected it in 2022. Similarly, Goldman’s economists put the odds of a recession in the next 12 months at under 20%.
Goldman also polled the crowd on the stock market and the Federal Reserve.
About 60% of respondents expected US equities to return 0% to 10% this year, but 45% predicted a bear market in 2021. Goldman’s strategists expected positive returns on equities in the coming months.
More than two-thirds of respondents predicted the Federal Reserve would hold interest rates steady this year, after the central bank cut them three times last year. Only 4% expected it to raise rates.